Year 2011: Occupied with Discontent

As 2011 comes to an end one in retrospect can reflect upon the tumult that has passed.

- Natural disasters are always with us. Japan’s tsunami and its thousands of deaths with its incredible images will live in our memory for a long time.

- The rise of Arab people in the Middle East (Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, etc) offers the glimpse of a better life for millions but they will soon find out that governments without good economic policies are not match better than dictatorships at creating jobs and opportunities.

- Europeans flirted with disaster as their currency faced the possibility of imminent death. Years of debt-fueled growth and spending finally caught with the profligate who are having hard time to realize that the party is over and difficult sacrifices in standard of life lie ahead.

- The Occupy movement however is the face of 2011. Representing discontent of all sorts. Some people invaded City square to protect budget cuts and inequality, others manifested frustration with increasingly repressive police state, and some even complained about globalization, capitalism and the market forces that, despite its up and down, have given the quality of life that the West enjoys but that too many there have started to take for granted. 2011 was the year where we discover we have been living dangerously. Will we ever learn?

The End of Another European Utopia

2011 will be remembered as the year that the latest European utopia began to unravel. The experiment begun after the second world war that tried to tie together a group of nations with diverse culture and languages into a loose confederation have failed. Europeans believed that they could put their vast difference aside working on a common economic project held together by the serious business of sharing a currency. The crisis of 2011 however showed once again that economic and national interests cannot converge where there big cultural differences persist. Most countries in Europe prefer living the good life while shying away from making sacrifices unless they have to. They do not have the self-discipline that a few Northern European countries, Germany especially, are capable of. This is why Europe has once again come at a fork in the road. Europeans can decide to recognize their differences and go separate ways, letting the euro currency crumble, or they can submit to the discipline that Germany requires for rescuing indebted nations. Those that will submit to Germany’s authority will deeply regret it because the cultural divide will lead to resentment and feeling of oppression and unfairness that in Europe have led to much bloodshed in the past.

The Rise of Populism and Plutocracy

The Occupy movement takes over the streets of large American cities as if the Arab spring had turn into the American fall of discontent. Unemployment, deep inequality, high personal debt and pessimism over the future, seem to have convinced lots of youthful souls to voice loudly their frustration over a world that seemed to have stacked the cards against them. They seem to complain against capitalism, globalization, the rich 1%  but the real causes of their demise, whether they care to admit or not, is the rise of a plutocracy (powerful politicians and their friends) who are only interested in their own power and wealth. The members of this elite mask themselves behind great populist promises of change we believe in or defending the poor but their goal is to protect their power by denying the middle and poor classes freedoms and the opportunity of a better life. They perpetuate a poor educational system, a bankrupt federal & police state bureaucracy, a system of false and unsustainable entitlements that the young are responsible paying for but can never enjoy. They claim to be our friends, members of the 99%, and yet behind their masks they are the ones that are oppressing your dreams of better life, they are the true enemies of Liberty.

 

The Master of Elegant Innovation Departs

The passing of Steve Jobs, the Apple CEO that revolutionized personal and mobile computing leaves the world at a loss in a time of great economic uncertainty. Mr. Jobs was a visionary who put people, his customers, at the center of its company strategy and products, an approach symmetrically opposed to the business and techno-focused strategies that prevail in the corporate world. People were left wondering if anyone else will be able to move forward, with such unrelenting focus, the cause of delivering elegant innovation, usable products and the challenging of the status quo to put in the hands of customers products that can truly improve their lives. We will miss him and seriously doubt that the world will see someone like him, so hungry so foolish so visionary, anytime soon.

Women and Humanity’s Coming Extinction

A recent report by the United Nations found that fertility rates are diminishing, a process  which has a major impact on humanity and its future. As women give birth to less daughters, human population will continue to decrease substantially. For example, as the Economist mentioned in a recent article, Hong Kong which has a .547 net reproduction rate (basically 547 daughters born out of 1000 women), would take about 25 generations for its female population to shrink from 3.75m to just one with that last woman there being born in 2798. Using the same logic, the population of Japan, Germany, Russia, Italy and even China would not make it to see the end of the next millennium (see chart). In a world with over 7 billion people, we often forget how fragile humanity and human life is and how the extinction of species, including ours, either by choice or nature is never too far way regardless of our delusions of greatness and our faith in gods or the power of science and technology.

 

It is Time to Move Above an Beyond 9-11

In the 10th year Anniversary of the September 11th 2001 terrorist attacks perpetrated on America’s civilians, it has often been claimed that we shall never forget this day. The enormity of a tragedy that took many lives and changed the course of history will retain valuable lessons about the folly humanity is capable of. However the damage done and the long grieving process should now give birth to a phase of renewal for a deeply troubled America. An America that has discovered its security and financial vulnerabilities should now find its strength to raise to these new challenge and set the course for its renewal. Just like these wonderful lights rising above the ashes of New York, Americans will need to imagine and work toward a future that ought to lay the foundations of a more innovative and secure country. Bombs and weapons will always be needed unfortunately in a dangerous world, but much strength can be derived from ideals, the ideas that America’s leadership has been built mainly upon freedom, hard work and openness to embrace new ideas.

The Emerging Shifting World

The term emerging economies was coined late in the 20th century to point to a set of nations emerging from poverty, decades later however that shift has become more dramatic  as the statistical chart above shows. The combined output of the emerging nations likely reached in 2011, measured at purchasing-power parity, 54% of world GDP. These nations now account for more than half of global consumption of most commodities, exports, and foreign investment. Emerging economies also account for more than half of all car purchases and over 80%  of all mobile phones.  The rich developed nations have also done their part to expedite this change embracing a culture of over-spending fueled by debt and living beyond their means which has led to very low economic growth and high unemployment. Welcome to the new emerging world where the rich feel poor and the poor finally get a taste of the so called ‘good’ life.

The End of the Dreamy Space Era

The launch of the last Space shuttle mission (photo) in July 2011 marks the end of an era where man thought it could conquer space without having come to its full senses about the cost of such ambitions. Putting a man on the moon inspired generations about the potential of technology but frankly scarce resources on planet earth, where millions still go hungry, could be put to far better use. In addition, it is arguable that sending machinery and probes to space has benefited more science research at far lower cost than any manned expedition ever has. In retrospect the all space investment was more a cold war effort to sway the emotions of people around the globe about the prowess of the United States, which ironically these days tatters on the verge of bankruptcy as a result of its profligate spending. It is indeed the end of a dreamy era, one I hope our children will be able to learn from.

The Age of the Aging

A recent report of the United Nations studies top countries that will have more than 1 million centenarians before the end of this century. As the top chart shows China will reach that goal first in 2069, and thanks to one-child policy is aging faster than other countries.  The US and Japan, benefiting from advances in medicine, will see their population age faster than some expected. Overall the world is set to get older and with this huge demographic shift there will no doubt be huge changes especially in western democracies where younger generations are on the hook to pay for huge government benefits promised to aging voters.

On the Happiness and Wealth of Nations

The OECD has introduced an alternative way to measure well being, moving beyond using only economic statistics such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) favored by economists. The study looked at 20 different indicators in 34 countries ranging from pollution to levels of satisfaction.

Using the headline “Better Life Index” against GDP per person (at purchasing power parity to adjust for differences in cost of living among countries), the study  unsurprisingly perhaps shows that there is a strong correlation between wealth and happiness. We did not need yet another study to tell us that wealth contributes to happiness but it would not hurt if it helped people remember that they should care deeply about the free market system that makes wealth-generation on large scale possible.