Immigration: the Border Indicator

Immigration is a hot topic in rich countries. Immigrants are often seen as a ‘problem’ (never mind that they are actually a very valuable economic asset and engine of growth) so lots of restrictions are placed to limit the free movement of people often in the name of ‘national security’. Politicians shopping for votes are always quick to promote tough laws and improve border security, never mind that the cost to the taxpayer – such as the $12 billion the USA will spend to guard the border in the next fiscal year – far exceeds the benefits. Migration however responds to mostly to market forces and while big fences and hostility do play a part,  the economy is a big factor. All you need to do is look at the ‘Border indicator’: in boom times, more arrests are made at the border as more people cross looking for work but in the last year fewer people were actually caught crossing the border. In 2007, 20% fewer arrests were made by the Border Patrol than in 2006. In the six months to March 2008, arrests are down by 17% on a year-to-year basis. Using this imperfect measure, migration has clearly slowed dramatically as the economy has drastically slowed down. Next time the border arrests go up Americans should remember that migration is simply responding to economic forces. When the US economy grows the reality is that the aging US workforce cannot meet the surging demand for labor and without those hard working immigrants that growth and prosperity would simply not be possible.